Russia is once again trying to play on the fear surrounding possible strikes on Kyiv. After attacks on Russian oil refineries, energy facilities, and military-industrial targets, Moscow has intensified its rhetoric and begun threatening Ukraine with new strikes on the capital.
But behind the Kremlin’s loud statements may lie not confidence, but a nervous reaction. The threat of using the ‘Oreshnik’ against Kyiv poses not only a military but also a political risk for Russia: this missile is not a precision weapon, and its possible use in a large city could lead to consequences that the Kremlin would find difficult to control.
Why Moscow is raising the stakes again
The Russian tactic is well known to Ukraine: when the war returns to Russian territory in the form of strikes on oil depots, refineries, energy facilities, and military logistics, the Kremlin tries to respond not only with missiles but also with psychological pressure.
The purpose of such threats is to make Ukrainian society nervous and to make Ukraine’s international partners doubt further support. Moscow hopes that talks of a ‘new level of escalation’ will work as a separate weapon.
However, the logic of these statements shows something else. Russia is reacting to painful blows to its vulnerable points and is trying to regain the initiative, at least in the information field.
For the Israeli audience, the familiar principle is important here: terror is often built not only on the strike itself but also on the anticipation of a strike. The threat becomes part of the pressure on civilians, diplomats, businesses, and politicians.
Why the ‘Oreshnik’ is dangerous as a weapon of fear
The ‘Oreshnik’ is presented by Russian propaganda as a symbol of new strength. But if you remove the propaganda noise, the main question remains: how controllable will such a strike on a metropolis be?
The problem is that this is not a precision weapon. It is a system capable of covering a significant area rather than accurately hitting one chosen point. In the conditions of Kyiv, where residential areas, diplomatic missions, foreign company offices, infrastructure, and civilian objects are nearby, such a strike becomes unpredictable.
This is precisely what may restrain Moscow from using the ‘Oreshnik’ on the Ukrainian capital. Not humanity, not fear of casualties among Ukrainians, but the risk of hitting somewhere Russia itself did not plan.
What might deter the Kremlin from striking Kyiv
Kyiv is not an isolated military target. It is the capital of a European state, where foreign embassies, international organizations, representatives of Western businesses, journalists, and diplomats work.
If an inaccurate missile or its submunitions hit a diplomatic object, the consequences could go far beyond the Russian-Ukrainian war. Embassies of the USA, China, EU countries, or other states whose representatives are in the city could theoretically be at risk.
For the Kremlin, this is the risk of a diplomatic scandal that cannot be easily dismissed as a ‘military target.’ Especially if the strike results in the death of foreigners or the destruction of an object associated with a major power.
In this sense, Russian threats look like an attempt to intimidate Kyiv, but not necessarily a readiness to go all the way. Moscow likes to raise the stakes but often does so in a way that leaves room for retreat.
NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency considers this situation precisely in this context: it is not only about the technical characteristics of the missile but about the political cost of a strike on the capital, where any mistake could become an international crisis.
Why this is important for Israel
Israelis understand well the logic of cities living under the threat of rockets and drones. An air raid alert is not an abstract formality but a warning that can save lives.
Ukraine is now facing a similar reality: Russian attacks can combine ‘Shaheds,’ cruise missiles, ballistics, and new types of weapons. Even if part of the threats is used for psychological pressure, it does not mean they can be ignored.
Especially dangerous is Russia’s bet on massiveness. Moscow may not achieve accuracy, but it tries to overload the air defense system with the number of targets, different trajectories, and night attacks.
Ukraine needs to prepare for new attacks
Even if a strike with the ‘Oreshnik’ on Kyiv remains a risky scenario for Russia, the threat of new massive attacks does not disappear. The Kremlin still has ‘Shaheds,’ ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, and it also tries to use periods when Ukrainian air defense experiences a shortage of ammunition.
Therefore, the main conclusion is simple: Russian statements cannot be taken as an accurate forecast, but they cannot be dismissed as mere propaganda either. The war has repeatedly shown that Moscow is capable of combining bluff, blackmail, and real strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainians need to respond to air raid alerts, have a supply of water, chargers, documents, medicines, and a minimal emergency backpack in advance. This is not panic, but normal civil preparedness in a country against which Russia is waging a missile war.
What is known about the strike on May 24
On the night of May 24, Russia used a medium-range ballistic missile ‘Oreshnik’ against Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, this was already the third case of the Russian army using this type of weapon.
The missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar range. The strike hit Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, where an impact was recorded in one of the city’s districts.
Although Kyiv was named as the main target of the night attack, the ‘Oreshnik’ itself was likely aimed specifically at Bila Tserkva. Among the possible targets was an airfield, but information appeared in the Ukrainian OSINT segment that the missile hit a garage cooperative.
There were also reports that Russia might have launched two ‘Oreshniks’ that night. According to analysts, one of the air targets likely malfunctioned and fell in the occupied Donetsk region.
This once again underscores the main risk: when the Kremlin uses inaccurate and heavy weapons near large cities, not only the declared targets but also civilian infrastructure, residential areas, and international objects are at risk.