On November 5, 2026, the scale of the Republicans’ defeat in the American midterm elections on November 3 became known. Democrats gained both houses of Congress: at least 54 seats in the Senate and an increase of at least 30 seats in the House of Representatives. In a New York Times column on November 4, columnist Christopher Caldwell argues that Donald Trump himself squandered the advantages gained after the victory in 2024. This is the author’s assessment, not the sole established reason for the failure.
Author: Pavel Shveiko
Midterm elections occur in the middle of a presidential term. Americans do not re-elect the head of state but decide who makes laws, approves spending, and controls the administration. Democrats will take over Congress in January 2027; until then, Republicans retain the powers of the current composition.
The defeat is much broader than a usual change of majority
According to calculations by Reuters and USA Today, Republicans lost a share of the vote in 99% of approximately 2,200 districts where counting was almost complete by November 4. On average, the decline relative to Trump’s 2024 result was eight percentage points. Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 94 years — Adam Hamilton. In Texas, James Talarico defeated Trump-backed Ken Paxton, and in South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews won. The party retreated even where the president confidently won two years ago.
Caldwell compares this blow to the 2018 midterm elections. Then, Republicans also lost the House of Representatives, but now, in the second term, Trump had a significantly more manageable state apparatus and expanded powers after Supreme Court decisions. At the end of October 2025, some polls still showed about 50% approval of the president; the economy continued to grow. Therefore, the columnist believes, the loss cannot be entirely explained by the inevitable dissatisfaction with the ruling party.
From raids in Minnesota to gas prices
Strict border security maintained support, but immigration raids in Minnesota and administration statements about welfare fraud among the Somali community sparked debates about methods. The restriction of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs escalated into pressure on universities and a conflict over freedom of speech. Abroad, threats to turn Canada into the 51st US state and a dispute with Denmark over Greenland irritated allies.
Caldwell considers Iran the most severe miscalculation. After American strikes on its nuclear facilities in June 2025, on February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation ‘Epic Fury.’ The April ceasefire did not bring a peace treaty; uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial oil supply route — persisted. Rising gas and diesel prices made the distant war a personal problem for the American motorist.
An AP poll of about 100,000 voters showed: about nine out of ten considered the cost of living a significant factor, about two-thirds linked inflation to Trump’s policies, and approximately 60% called the decision to start the war with Iran a mistake. In a separate pre-election study by Reuters/Ipsos, 55% of respondents deemed the war not worth the cost. These data do not allow declaring it the sole reason for the defeat.
Why Vance’s words worry Israel
On November 4, Vice President J.D. Vance wrote that Republicans lost because of the war. He recounted the responses of disappointed voters collected by a sociologist: end the war, address the cost of living, put America’s interests first, and change relations with Israel. This is not an announcement of breaking the alliance, but a significant change in political rhetoric at the White House. Vance is considered a possible presidential candidate in 2028. NANews previously reported on his public conflict with Israeli politicians.
For Israeli readers, it is important to distinguish between the president and Congress. American aid and arms supplies depend not only on White House decisions: lawmakers approve the budget, hold hearings, and can block appointments. After the war in Gaza, support for Israel among Democrats weakened, and some of their representatives oppose unconditional arms supplies. Trump announced an agreement with Benjamin Netanyahu to end annual military aid, but the legal basis for such a step is unclear. The president retains the right to veto, which can only be overcome by two-thirds of both houses.
Israel approaches this change without a formed new government. In the Knesset elections on October 27, Netanyahu’s bloc received 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc — 48, Arab parties — 19. A majority requires 61 mandates. Critics of Netanyahu associate the weakening of bipartisan support for Israel with his bet on Trump. A change of coalition in Jerusalem could change the tone of negotiations with Washington.
Ukraine and the next two years
Democrats will be able to bring new aid packages to Ukraine for consideration and review Trump’s decisions on easing Russian oil restrictions. But voting will not immediately create additional Patriot interceptor missiles. NANews | Nikk.Agency has already explained how the conflict with Iran affects American military strategy.
Trump acknowledged the results and allowed for cooperation with Democrats while emphasizing the right to veto. He does not abandon the war with Iran: he stated that he would repeat the decision to start it. Republicans urge the White House to reconsider the course. From January, his opponents will gain parliamentary levers, but the president will remain the commander-in-chief. For Israel, this means that good relations with the White House no longer guarantee unhindered support on Capitol Hill.