Vladimir Putin is trying to take advantage of Donald Trump’s difficulties in the war against Iran to achieve conditions favorable to Russia for ending the war in Ukraine. Moscow offers mediation in negotiations with Tehran, discusses economic cooperation with Washington, and promotes the idea of a meeting of the leaders of the USA, Russia, and China. The Ukrainian president is not included in the proposed format.
Author: Alexander Khmelnitsky
This strategy is described by the diplomatic editor of the British newspaper The Guardian Patrick Wintour in an analytical article published on October 31, 2026. According to his assessment, the Kremlin hopes to link the resolution of the two wars by using the American president’s interest in a quick diplomatic result.
The first signs of this initiative appeared on October 9, when Putin, during a phone conversation with Trump, proposed a trilateral summit involving Chinese President Xi Jinping. The proposed venue was the Chinese city of Shenzhen, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit is scheduled to take place on November 18-19. On October 19, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the discussion of the meeting but emphasized that there is no agreed agenda or final agreement.
Why Moscow needed negotiations on Iran
On October 19, Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran, where he met with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Russian minister offered assistance in resolving the conflict while simultaneously supporting Iran and criticizing the actions of the USA and Israel.
The next day, Araghchi spoke about the extraordinarily close cooperation between the two countries. Among the discussed issues were Ukraine, Lebanon, Yemen, the Palestinian problem, and the nuclear sphere. Russia and Iran are linked by a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement. Iranian Shahed drones, used by Russia against Ukrainian cities, have long made military interaction between Moscow and Tehran a problem not only for Middle Eastern security.
For NANews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency, there is a significant contradiction between Russian statements about mediation and actual partnership with Iran. Previously, the editorial team analyzed the possibility of using American pressure on Iran against Russia. Now the Kremlin is trying to use the consequences of the American military operation in the opposite direction.
On October 21, Putin discussed the resumption of negotiations with Trump’s special representative Steve Witkoff. Separate contacts between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA after November 10 were also considered. This is a different format, not equivalent to a summit of Putin, Trump, and Xi.
Analyst Amir Chahaki, quoted by The Guardian, believes that the Russian president hopes to gain more concessions on Ukraine the closer he can bring Tehran to Washington’s demands. There is no confirmation that the American side has already accepted such an exchange.
Why Trump is interested in an agreement, and Kyiv fears a deal
The war between the USA and Israel against Iran began on February 28, 2026. It did not lead to a sustainable resolution of the nuclear issue but significantly affected the energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of Persian Gulf oil is exported, has become a means of pressure for Tehran.
According to data provided by The Guardian, Brent oil reached $117 per barrel — about 50% higher than the pre-war level. Global inflation rose to 4%. The International Monetary Fund predicted a contraction of the Saudi Arabian economy by 3.3% instead of the expected growth of 1.7% in July. On September 30, the kingdom increased its budget deficit forecast for 2026 to $65.3 billion, which was 48% higher than the initial estimate.
Before the midterm elections in the US Congress on November 3, rising fuel prices became a political problem for Trump. He criticized Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, accused Volodymyr Zelensky of hindering peace, and spoke about the prospects of Russian-American business.
Washington also announced a proposed 60-day energy truce, although there was no agreement from Kyiv and Moscow on such an arrangement. The supply of Russian diesel fuel to the USA was discussed. On October 29, The Guardian reported on six tankers with 268,000 tons of fuel, but the question remained whether they would be unloaded. The scale of supplies is insufficient to significantly reduce American prices.
At the same time, Trump invited Putin to the upcoming winter G20 summit, which the USA plans to hold at a venue near Miami. For the Russian president, this is an opportunity to overcome diplomatic isolation without a preliminary end to the war.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga opposed discussing the future of the country without Ukrainian leadership. The comparison of the proposed summit with the Yalta Conference of 1945, a meeting of the leaders of the USA, the UK, and the USSR, heightens Kyiv’s concerns: back then, the great powers were negotiating the post-war arrangement of Europe. Today, Ukraine does not agree to become the subject of such a bargain.
Israel, Europe, and the limits of a possible deal
Israel is interested in an agreement that will ensure verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, reduce the missile threat, and address the activities of armed organizations supported by Tehran. Russian mediation in itself does not guarantee any of these outcomes.
The position of Moscow in international nuclear disputes is indicative. In an article by Alexander Khmelnitsky on the Iranian program, the Syrian reactor in Deir ez-Zor, and Russia’s role, it was considered how Moscow opposed certain decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the UN Security Council. The IAEA is a structure that verifies states’ compliance with obligations for the peaceful use of atomic energy.
A new regional approach was proposed by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. Muscat, which previously mediated between the USA and Iran, advocates for a Persian Gulf security agreement involving Tehran. For Israel, it is crucial what commitments will be secured and who will be able to verify their implementation.
Doubts are also growing in Europe. After contradictory explanations from the American administration about limiting Ukrainian access to the military capabilities of the Starlink satellite system, European politicians began to talk about dependence on American technologies. Elon Musk referred to a violation of the network’s terms of use, while US Vice President JD Vance pointed to the need to coordinate such decisions with the authorities.
European leaders are even discussing the risks of dependence on American maintenance and technical support for F-35 fighters. In May, the European Commission proposed revising the allocation of 2 GHz band satellite frequencies. The Guardian reports plans to provide European companies with up to 70% of the corresponding resource; a final decision on this has not yet been made.
Germany and other European states continue to view Russia as a threat to the continent’s security. Meanwhile, Washington demonstrates readiness to restore economic contacts with Moscow.
There remains a serious counterargument to the Russian calculation: Tehran is not obliged to accept the conditions proposed by Putin, and Trump may try to negotiate with Iran without Russian mediation. Therefore, the Kremlin’s negotiation initiatives do not yet mean that Moscow has indeed gained influence over the outcome of the conflict.
As of November 1, neither the summit of the three leaders nor the proposed exchange of concessions has been agreed upon. The test of the Russian strategy will be specific decisions by Washington: whether it will agree to discuss peace conditions without Ukraine, whether it will go for further sanction relief, and whether it will allow a connection between the Iranian settlement and the Kremlin’s demands.
For Israel, another question is equally important: can any agreement on Iran provide verifiable security guarantees, regardless of what political advantages Russia tries to gain.
If it’s important for you to see how world events affect Israel and Ukraine, add NANews to Google and follow our publications.